Government Revenue Forecasting Methods

7 step process for annual revenue forecasting.

Government revenue forecasting methods. Methods adopted in forecasting revenue in addition to variety of political and institutional factors determining such bias golosov and kind 2002 kyobe and danninger 2005. While there are a wide range of frequently used quantitative budget forecasting tools in this article we focus on the top four methods. The last 18 months 6 quarters. Nacslb s list of 10 recommended budget practices.

And use of monthly or quarterly data. Forecasting uses available data and methods of analysis to estimate the value of a. Local government code chapter 111 provides guidance on county budgets and indicates who is responsible for forecasting and certifying revenue. Revenue forecasting techniques used by state and local governments.

Revenue does not necessarily mean cash received expenses and capital costs for a business. Results show that forecast software damped trend methods and simple exponential smoothing methods perform best with monthly and quarterly data. First determine the income you are virtually certain to have. Revenue forecasting methods the four main revenue forecasting approaches used at all levels of government include.

1 straight line 2 moving average 3 simple linear regression and 4 multiple linear regression. Trec revenue forecasting 1 revenue forecasting principles and procedures for more reliable revenue forecasts and better budgets don elder october 2012 there is a time honored way to develop a household budget. Or 2 years of the data are held out for accuracy evaluation. 2 the nature and process of revenue forecasting accurate forecasting of revenues and expenditures is important for avoiding both underfunding and excessive funding of the government and related consequences of associated surpluses or deficits.

The primary focus however is on municipalities the level of government about which information on revenue forecasting has been quite limited. Revenue division at 317 232 5610. Experts recommend using a combination of judgment and quantitative forecasting methods to achieve the most accurate possible prediction of what the. Request pdf local government revenue forecasting methods.

Staff from both the state budget agency and legislative services agency have a vital role in the process by assisting. Qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques. In nepal revenue forecasts is an important task of ministry of finance mof in the. Then develop a realistic plan to live within your means.

Revenue forecast committee the revenue forecast technical committee is comprised of members from both the executive and legislative branches.